Global Predications for the Year of the Dragon – Introduction

This is my 23rd year using what my master has taught me, to make predictions for year for Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Canada, and US. For all these years that I have been making predictions, they have been accurate for major event, and before these events happen, I have given forewarning in my predictions. For example, in Spring of 1992, I predicted the wave of immigration from Hong Kong to places such as Canada, United States and Australia, with many people returning to their home country by approximately 2007.

In 2000, I predicted the slowing of overseas immigration from Hong Kong and Taiwan. I predicted that China will be a major source of immigration, which will decrease between 2007 and 2009, and by 2010, even the immigrants from China will slowly return to their home country. Also, in 1997, I predicted a financial crisis. Unfortunately, I predicted the spread of a major communicable disease, SARS, for 2003. I predicted that in 2001, there would be a major fire disaster on the Eastern coast of the United States and that prediction was realized with the 911 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center. Many people felt that as a result of 911, the economies of Canada and the US will decline, but I insisted that rather than declining, the economies would continue to do well and stocks will continue to rise. I predicted that in 2005, Hong Kong's Chief Executive Tung Chee-hua would resign amongst some drama even though he would be able to take Hong Kong through the SARS incident in 2003. Against the odds and despite what other fortune tellers predicted, I said that Chen Sui-bian, President of Taiwan, would be re-elected by using underhanded means, to continue his presidency but that once continues in office, that his popularity with the citizens would decline and eventually step down due to scandals.

I predicted in 2008 that there will be a global recession, advising people not to be greedy or impulsive and to carefully invest and the result is that many people had suffered financial loss, with the Dow ones that year dropping from 13,000 to 7,500 points but that it will increase once again to about 12,000 in 2010 to 2011, with much fluctuation in between. The United States, in 2008 to 2009 experienced the greatest economic decline in the last 30 years and as a result affecting global economy, with large companies downsizing and layoffs, which all were predictions that became reality. Even though the recession is global and will to some extent affect Hong Kong and China, but because of their geographical location, they are less affected than the Western hemisphere. In 2008, I also predicted that in the northwestern area, there will be a major earthquake and accordingly, the Sichuan earthquake resulted in many fatalities.

In 2008-2009, I predicted that there will be more erratic changes in weather and that there will be another major communicable illness, and we saw that many provinces in Canada were hit with a heat wave. At the end of 2007, I predicted that crude oil prices will be as high as $100 USD a barrel, and that the following year, it will drop to as low as $60 USD. I predicted in the global recession that China will be the least affected country, where its GDP will increase while other countries decrease and though 2009 is not entirely over, the chances of China succeeding in this is high. However, China isn’t without its problems, as I predicted before, Tibet and Xinjiang will have political disputes and disorder with casualties, and this has come true. And what was thought as a ridiculous prediction at the time, has now proved to be correct. This has been a review of my major predictions in the last two decades.

In the I-Ching, this is a year where on the surface, it appears as if there is improvement from the economic recession, but in reality, some places will do better, others will be worse than the past year. The economic opportunities will be relatively few this year. As individuals, ability is weak, but if people can work together, there can be more improvement. Therefore, one must nurture harmonious relationships with colleagues, not only your superiors, but also those who work under you. Otherwise, if you are short-sighted and stubborn, failure will ensue. The year of the Dragon is a year of good embedded with the bad. There are a lot of fake people and false opportunities; therefore, it is not a very harmonious year. We can expect changing government and leaders stepping down, as well as tragedies from terrorist activities, natural disasters and human illness. A few years ago, I did predict a global illness, which is that North America would be hit harder, which is what we see today, especially with the initial shortages of the knowledge or vaccine. Socially, we will be faced with fierce competition and a lot of gossip and scandals. As long as we remember to be dynamic, adaptable, not afraid of doing extra work without gains, and keep our intentions honorable, we can pave the way towards a good year.

In the year of the Dragon, certain stars promote the elements water and wood, where water gives rise to wood, wood gives rise to fire, and fire changes and strengthen metal. However, because the element metal is too strong this year, in the beginning of the year, there are arguments, fights, and will easily be bloodshed and disorder, like flooding and earthquakes, traffic injuries and war. Particularly in the southeastern and southern directions, those areas will have a higher occurrence of influenza and other global illnesses. The northeastern countries will be more prone to water and fire disasters and traffic accidents. Therefore, everyone needs to be more careful and take care in diet and lifestyle choices, as well as trying to be more harmonious with others. People need to be more understanding of each other, improve communication and be more accommodating, which are key to success this year.

We will now step into 2012, my predictions for the Year of the Dragon. The actual Year of the Dragon begins on February 4th, 2012 in the solar calendar, which is January 13th for the lunar calendar at 18:40. Even though it is not quite Chinese New Year, we have already stepped into the year of the Dragon. Therefore, those born on or before February 4th at 18:40 actually belong to the year of the Rabbit and those born on or after February 4th at 18:40 actually belong to the year of the Dragon.

The year of the Dragon is a year of extremes and disturbances for both the economy and people. Therefore, disruptions and conflicts easily occur and problems arise unexpectedly. It is a changing and difficult to predict year. With economic unrest, we can expect the economy to take an “M” shaped, double skewed configuration, where the rich will get richer, the poor will get poorer. Economic and financial policies will bubble. People’s values and ethics are becoming more twisted. Every industry will be very difficult and people will be working harder. Large companies and financial institutions, particularly in the United States will need to rely more heavily on government intervention and support. Globally, the economic outlook is difficult, with countries such as Egypt and ones in South America near bankrupt and though they will get aid from other countries, it will not help much. Despite attempts from the United States to stimulate the economy with QE2 and QE3, the effect is limited and concept impractical. The United States and Europe will continue to face much economic difficulty. However, things will not be forever good or forever bad. For the United States and Europe, we can see some stability after October. Interest rates will start to slowly increase, which will initially affect stocks and real estate. Though Asia is affected by the global recession, China and Hong Kong will still do relatively well in comparison.

United States

In 2003, I predicted that with the alignment of stars in 2004, the US would have several years of good luck and we saw that from 2005 to 2007, economy times were good, with increasing productivity, low inflation and on both East and West coast, real estate values were increasing, in addition to the Dow Jones faired really well. At the end of the stream of luck, we step into autumn of 2007, where we started to have some economic downturn and rising inflation, which inevitably become the economic recession of today, with the next five years, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 being the beginning of the bad luck nightmare. The United States, being one of the strongest economic powers in the world, certainly will have a global effect with this recession and it is a fate that is difficult to escape. Accordingly, a Chinese saying that is appropriate is, things will not be good for a thousand days and flowers don’t bloom for a hundred days. The wood star and water star in 2008 to 2009 were against the southwest, so the United States was affected, resulting in the downfall of many industries, especially banking, automobile and manufacturing. In 2009, employment rate increased and real estate value decreased. In response, the government printed more currency and supported banks and automobile companies, as well as reducing interest rates. Such attempts with QE1 and QE2 to help delay economic decline and prevent bankruptcy of the country are good intentions, but is not without consequences, where it gives people false hope or the appearance that there is improvement, as long term, the government is unable keep putting money in. I also predicted that in 2011, there will not be much economic improvement and will continue to decline. Hopefully, by the end of the fall season in 2012, the economy will start to become more stable and there will be more consumer confidence where people will start investing again or if unemployment declines and people can start buying real estate again. However, on the whole, the consequence of this recession is like being bitten by a snake for the United States. As I predict, starting from 2012, the importance of the United States as a major economic force will slowly decline.

President Obama faces a very difficult challenge with the recession. He is in a position where even though he may have talent, he doesn’t have much to work with, much like a chef without proper ingredients. His popularity will greatly decline in the summer and he may makes mistakes that are difficult to get out of. If there is an upcoming election in 2012, President Obama will lose by a wide margin.

Real estate, finance and banking, stocks and currency are unstable in 2012. Not until after September will there be some stability. In beginning of the year of the Dragon, the government will continue to print more money, keep interest rates low and subsidize to encourage consumerism in real estate and automobiles in order to prevent further economic decline and dropping of real estate values. However, I do not foresee any real significant improvement in 2012 using these strategies. As a result, the recovery of the economy will be slower. Upturn should be begin around the Fall, led by industries such as high tech, computers, pharmaceuticals, mining, and funding. Retail should start to recover by late Fall or early Winter. Automobile, banking, insurance, distribution, and food and hospitality should see improvement towards the end of Winter. Though the economy will improve, inflation and interest rates will increase. If interest rates do no increase, then inflation will increase, but increased interest rates will threaten the newly recovering economy. Though unemployment rate may decrease to about 8%, there will be no practical improvements in standard of living. Furthermore, the financial market will tend to have much movement, with the Dow Jones having large fluctuations, no higher than 13,000 points and drop as low as 10,000 points or lower. The USD will be relatively stronger in the year of the Dragon, with a slight increase in the beginning of the year then decrease, with 1 Euro to about $1.3 - $1.41 USD. I predicted before that the value of gold in 2009 will have a chance of exceeding $900USD an ounce and right now, gold has exceeded $1800 USD per ounce and in 2011, gold will have a further increase to about $1850 - $1900 per ounce. I predicted for 2009 that crude oil prices will drop to below $60 USD a barrel then increase to about $80 USD and all of this has come true. In 2012, crude oil will range from $80 USD a barrel to a high of $100 USD.

Canada

In 2012, to some extent, Canada will be directly affected by the declining economy of the United States. The value of crude oil and precious metals are increasing, so Canada will not be greatly affected, but it is not entirely self-sufficient. Alberta and Ontario will not do as well as they have in previous years. Additionally, I have predicted in the past five years, that there will be some 3-4 federal elections, which do not have positive contributions to the economy and that they would be minority governments led by the Conservative party. However, in last year’s predictions, I mentioned that if there is a federal election in the summer, then the Conservatives have a high chance of being elected as a majority government and that prediction is correct.

Canada’s bad debt continues to be serious and the country’s lack of clear goals and conservative economic policies will not help the economy grow and actually may have some decline in 2012. However, Canada’s economy will be relatively better than the US. The GDP is expected to be about 2.0 -2.5%, which will still be better compared to the US. The unemployment rate is expected to range from 6.0 – 8%. The inflation rate will remain low at 2.0 – 3.0%. Precious metals, mining products and natural gas will be relatively stable this year. The Canadian dollar has been too strong in the past years and will slightly decrease in value in 2012; however, globally it will still be considered a relatively strong currency at approximately $1 CDN to 7.55 to 7.96 HKD, or $1 CDN to 0.98 – 1.035 USD. Interest rates will continue to be low in 2012, with a slight increase in the Fall season, and on average, the increase will not likely be greater than 1%. Exports in the latter half of the year will do better, particularly crude oil, telecommunications, precious metals and mining products, which will be fairly stable; however, wood products, automobile, and machinery will not have much improvement. The economy in the Spring of 2012 will continue to be slow, though in the Fall, there will be slight improvement in retail, construction, and distribution. Canada will have stronger ties with Asia, particularly China, which will strengthen our exports and economy as a whole. In the past, Canada has relied too heavily on the United States, and in 2012, there will be improved international relations with China, India and Japan, which is advantageous to Canada.

Real estate will continue to be stable, particularly in British Columbia and Ontario, where the beginning of the year will have a good market with increasing values. However, it will tend to fluctuate, so it is not advised to invest in real estate, especially in B.C. What we will see, particularly in B.C. are initial increases in real estate values in the late Spring and early Summer; however, in the Fall, after September, there will be a large correction, especially in Westside Vancouver, Vancouver city centre and Richmond which will have a relatively large drop of up to 10%. Other provinces like Saskatchewan, Alberta in Edmonton and Calgary, we will also see initial increase and then decrease in real estate values. In eastern Canada, places like Montreal and Ottawa are relatively stable, but we should also see a drop in about 5% for real estate values. Similarly, Toronto will also see initial increase, then decrease. In terms of stocks, there is much fluctuation and we will see initial increase followed by decrease, but the TSX can be expected to be no higher than 13,000 points. Unless you have extra money to invest, take caution and avoid borrowing money to do so.

In terms of politics, I previously predicted in 2005 that Canada will have a change in leadership in the federal government and in 2006, the Liberals stepped down due to scandal and the Conservatives were elected and as predicted, a minority government. As mentioned earlier, between 2006 and 2010, there were some three elections, all resulting in the Conservative minority government that isn’t much use, lacking long-term goals and creating more disturbances in the economy than good. The economy will not start to be more stable until after 2012. The way out is to improve trade relations with Asia, particularly with China, and rely less on the United States and strengthen telecommunications, primary resources, and high tech exports, improve consumer spending power, reducing taxes and unemployment rate can lead to a stable and booming economy. However, I believe the Harper government will create stronger ties with Asia in terms of trading, economy and politics, which will encourage export to Asia, especially with wood, crude oil, telecommunications and high tech. In 2012, not only will there be no chance of the GST or HST being removed, we can expect increased taxation, which will lead to even greater difficulty for the citizens and decreased standard of living. There is also no hope of eliminating overseas income taxation, which will further increase the number of Asian immigrants particularly China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan returning to their home country and thus there is continued decrease in spending amongst the Chinese community.

Central and South America

The economy in 2012 in Central and South America, especially Brazil, Argentina and Mexico, will change for the better. Brazil will fair best and is expected to have about 10-12% growth. Inflation will increase slightly. Amongst the global recession, relatively, it is country that will be very apparent in doing well. However, South America will have earthquakes and floods, as well as political disturbances. Peru and Chile will have particularly more natural disasters.

Europe

In 2012, the year of the Dragon, Europe’s economy is actually not bad, where there are changes that lead to improvement, particularly for Germany, England, and France will perform better. The decline in banking and insurance in the past year is no longer. Internal consumerism and spending is stable. Real estate, particularly England, will have very apparent increase in value, whereas Netherlands, Belgium and Germany will have less of an increase. Eastern Europe, countries like Iceland and Norway, will still be weak in economy and real estate. On the other hand, Southern European countries like Italy, Greece, Turkey, and other countries will have declines, which will be initial, then subsequently they will become stronger later on. While there is no hope of eliminating the Euro, it will be weaker this year, compared to the USD is about 1 Euro to 1.3 – 1.41 USD, with rather large changes. The Great Britain Pound will still be a strong currency, of 1 GBP to 1.55 – 1.65 USD. On average, the unemployment rate in Europe is still high. Some countries will be in double digit. The British Stock Exchange and Frankfurt Stock Exchange will have the largest fluctuations, but on average may have a 6-8% increase.

Southeast Asia

In 2012, most the countries in Southeast Asia with the exception of Pakistan and South Korea, will have growth in economy. India, Singapore, North Korea. Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia will also have some improvement. However, Thailand will again have internal conflicts that will affect the economy and tourism. Indonesia may have earthquake and tsunami, affecting the lives of the people. As said, most of the other countries of Asia will experience a more rapid growth and exports will increase. The Yen will be a particularly strong currency, with 1 USD to about 77-82 Yen. Those who wish to invest may consider industrial, technology, or financial stocks, which will be expected to have 15% increase for Japan, India and Singapore, particularly Japan and India stocks will do better.

China

For the year of the Dragon, China will continue to have a tendency to develop two extremes where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Internal retail and exports will be weaker, posing a threat to the economy. Luckily, manufacturing companies can easily adjust and be adaptable in that rather than making goods for exports, they can be made for internal retail. This will help the economy and the lives of the people through reducing the chance of an increasing unemployment rate. In 2012, economic and society morals and values continue to disintegrate as corruption becomes more and more of a serious issue. The corruption of businesses, officials and local governments will lead to the continued suffering of the people. The social atmosphere is filled with disorder, selfishness and competition, where people are superficial, greedy, and make short-term goals to hopefully earn big money overnight; as a result, there will be a lot of scams and fraud. If the central Chinese government does not control this corruption, it is the citizens who suffer and if economic policies are not in place to suppress corruption among businesses and government officials, the effects on the economy will be like a ticking time bomb. Other than controlling corruption and economic policies, the government should also put funds into things such as constructing bridges, utilities, health care, education, development of high tech to directly benefit the people and narrow the gap between the rich and the poor.

The global recession actually gave China a good opportunity, where it allowed China to match the western countries in terms of economy in 2009 – 2010, that China does not only rely on exports and spending from outside. China can use this opportunity to manufacture high tech and high end or higher quality products will be better for China’s economy long term. There should not be sole focus on stock market and real estate trading and investment as amongst a seemingly booming time, it is unstable. In the year of the Dragon, regardless of whether it is politics, economy, finance, real estate, manufacturing or retail, it will be a year of good embedded with the bad, or vice versa. If the central Chinese government can be long-sighted towards politics, economics and foreign relations, be more democratic and make more visible policies and participate in good diplomatic relations like the UN, then not only will there not be decline, but the GDP may even grow by about 6%. Particularly in the last half of the year, industries such as tourism, shipping, insurance, imports/exports, service, banking, and mining would head the economy. In the Summer and Fall, foreign investment will continue to enter China, but one should be careful of corruption, red tape and excessive taxation from local governments, which will negatively affect the confidence of foreign investors, impacting the economy long term.

The year of the Dragon will see growths in currency and banking. In 2012, China continues to be the country with the most foreign currency. Shanghai Stock Exchange shares can be expected to have 7% increase. The Ren Men Bi compared to the USD will have 2 – 3% increase. However, be it stocks or currencies, fluctuations are large and is not a place where the common person or small business person can win money, because if one is overtaken by greed, big losses will ensue. China’s real estate will initially increase in value, then decline and different provinces will have different situations. China’s financial centers, Beijing and Shanghai will continue to be strong and would be the place of choice to invest real estate; however, choose real estate from large developers only, to reduce the risk of poorly built property. Guangzhou and Shenzhen will have a large correction in its real estate values, which will decrease, so avoid investing. The western and southwestern areas like Sichuan, Xian, Xinjiang, and Chongqing will have slight declines in real estate values. Cities in the southeast, like Tianjin, Niuling and Tsingtao will have fairly stable real estate prices, no large increases or decreases. As said, China’s social and economic state is where the gap between the rich and the poor is getting wider and distribution of wealth is skewed. People are becoming more superficial and chasing worldly goods. Additionally, private and government owned factories closing down, leaving high unemployment and desperate people to take risks.

Taiwan

The year of the Dragon is a changing, restless year, whether it is politics, economics or well-being of the citizens. In a previous interview with the Vancouver edition Ming Pao Daily Newspaper published on March 18th, 2004, I was able to accurately predict that Chen Shui-bian would be victorious in the election, contrary to the surveys and other predictions made by other fortune tellers who supported a Kuomintang victory. Chen Shui-bian would be re-elected, but would be imprisoned, as under the Chen Shui-bian and the Progressive Democratic Party leadership, their policies created a lot of economic and social problems. I also predicted for 2008 that the Kuomingtang would be elected in government due to Chen Shui-bian’s corruption. Though Ma Ying-jeou was popular and there was a lot of optimism, but he is of limited help to improving economy and social issues, with his policies lacking in long term goals. In 2012, Taiwan will have a presidential election and I predict that the Kuomingtang will continue to stay in power with Ma Ying-jeou winning with low support by a narrow margin and Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, will lose.

Hong Kong

In the year of the Dragon, Hong Kong is best described as divided and what is meant by divided is that the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer and this situation will get worse. As a result, the economy and societal values and attitudes are becoming more and more twisted, where high values are placed on packaging oneself and are immersed into investing in stocks in hopes to make a lot of quick money overnight. Hong Kong’s economy will not do as well in the year of the Dragon and real estate values will slightly decline. Spending is mostly relied on tourism from China and abroad to help maintain the economy. A lot of traditional industries will be undermined in importance and largely taken over by retail, losing manufacturing and home production type industries. The industries remaining include food, hospitality and tourism, finance and banking, retail, shipping and trading. The Hong Kong government needs to have comprehensive and conservative economic policies that maintain a visible financial centre in order to maintain Hong Kong’s reputation as a major financial centre in Asia, and as China’s off-shore financial centre. Hong Kong will also have to improve communications services, a stable financial platform, and a more democratic political atmosphere, in order to reduce the threat of Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen or Singapore overtaking Hong Kong as Asia’s major financial centre. However, in 2013, the chance that Shanghai overtaking Hong Kong as Asia’s major financial centre is very slim.

In 2012, Hong Kong will continue to have the open policy of travel with Mainland China, which will bring more people from China to Hong Kong. As a result, there will be increased spending on retail, tourism, food and hospitality. However, we do expect real estate to slow down. In the last half of the year, Hong Kong’s export industry will also slow down. Competition will be fiercer for every industry. Inflation will slowly rise, so though there are gains for the people, practically speaking, there is less. Though there is less talk about cutbacks and layoffs, there will actually be little effect on the unemployment rate, which is expected to be around 3.2 – 4.5%, so the people will have to look out for themselves. Hopefully, the government will try to support small and medium sized businesses and attract high tech, investment and finance expertise from abroad. Increased spending on retail, high tech, tourism, international finance and such industries will result in building of international class harbor, bridge, performing arts centre, financial convention center and science and technology centre in the years to come. Hopefully, Hong Kong will become a major worldwide financial centre in the next 5 – 7 years.

There has been political unrest in Hong Kong, as I have said for 2003 where 50,000 people gathered for a demonstration in support of the Democratic Party, which I predicted correctly that they will not be a strong political power. However, gaining more popularity is DAB (Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong) who support closer ties to China and in 2007 – 2008, they became the biggest political party in Hong Kong, which I have previously predicted and is now true. The year of the Dragon is a difficult year for politicians, so Donald Tsang Yam-kuen with the weak government that for the past few years largely relied on China, will lose popularity and Tsang Yam-kuen will step down as Chief Executive of Hong Kong and Henry Tang Ying-yen will be his successor in 2012. However, Tang Ying-yen is not a very talented and capable politician, so this will inherently affect Hong Kong’s economic growth in the year of the Dragon

Economic, finance and real estate in Hong Kong this year can be described as quick and high risk. The luxury homes, which are meant for Mainland Chinese to invest in and sell are illusions. The real estate market in Hong Kong will decline this year, as China puts tighter regulations on lending in early Spring, real estate and stocks will have a correction and a drop in value is inevitable, which can lead to huge losses. Those who are looking to buy a home to live in should do so after mid-year or towards the end of the year and choose low to mid-value real estate. In general, housing values will go slightly down in the year of the Dragon where low to mid-value real estate is expected to decrease by 5 – 8%. Particularly solid areas are the eastern and western districts, for example west Kowloon or eastern, western or southwestern Hong Kong Island, which also tend to have better feng shui.

I previously predicted that in 2007 – 2008, the Ren Men Bi will increase to about 1USD to 8 RMB, which has been true. In the year of the Dragon, the RMB will be relatively weaker but will still continue to increase to about 1USD to 9 RMB. As a result, it will threaten the Hong Kong dollar, making it weaker. In terms of the financial market, stocks and bonds, there will be fluctuations. The Hang Seng Index will be around 15,000 – 20,000 points. Though I said in 2008 that there will be many new stocks in the market in 2011, but for 2012, new stocks will dive in and then dive down, so caution must be taken when investing as greed can lead to poverty. Stocks and bonds can be a long-term investment; however, only if one has sufficient funds should they invest. One must avoid borrowing money to buy stocks or else become the stock market’s dim sum, as this year’s stock market fluctuations are difficult to grasp.

The year of the Dragon is a year where there are particularly more problems for the people and society. There will be large scale traffic accidents, wind and water natural disasters, mid year may have an explosion, or even demonstrations. Try to avoid staying too long in crowds, as risks of flu and respiratory infections are greater. Home safety and public personal hygiene is a strong concern this year, as there will be a large scale flu/respiratory infection that may occur. Safety is poor, with homicides and theft tend to be more serious this year. There is a decline of human morals, leading to more sexual assault, rape, adultery and fraud. Tempers tend to be more volatile in the year of the Dragon, so watch for spoken words leading to loss of money, physical injury, fights, and arguments. As there are more love related and sex crimes in the year of the Dragon, be careful of conduct with the opposite sex, resulting in loss of money and injury.

I previously predicted in 2007 that I predicted that a very famous female actress would pass away in 2008 and that prediction was correct with the passing Lydia Shum Din-Ha. For 2008, I also predicted a lot of love scandals and we saw at least ten celebrities in the headlines, for example Edison Chen’s sex photo scandal and other triangular or inappropriate relationships, and my prediction was again correct. I also predicted that the modeling industry would have some commotion, where we saw the sexual explicitness of young or underage models twisted the entertainment and modeling industry. The year of the Dragon will continue to see the love and sex scandal trends. The entertainment industry this year will stabilize a bit, but will not recover, the chances almost nil, to the height it once was. The quality and talent of people in the entertainment industry continues to decline, where good reviews and sales are not apparent and that is the direction the industry is headed towards. Seasoned old timers and young models continue to be the ones making appearances to sell the productions. There will be a number of new television stations appearing in 2012, but they are illusions and not expected to do well. This year, we may see a famous male celebrity pass away, as well as a famous societal figure suffer from major illness and pass away. Hopefully, the people of Hong Kong can work honestly and hard to improve in the year of the Dragon.