Global – Predictions for the Year of the Tiger Introduction

In the I-Ching, this is a year where on the surface, it appears as if there is improvement from the economic recession, but in reality, some places will do better, others will be worse than the previous year. Relatively, the economic opportunities will be fewer this year. Now, individually, ability is weak, but it people can work together, can there be improvement. Therefore, one must nurture harmonious relationships with colleagues, not only your superiors, but also those who work under you. Otherwise, if you are short-sighted and stubborn, failure will ensue. The year of the Tiger is a year of good embedded with the bad. There are a lot of fake people and false opportunities; therefore, it is not a very harmonious year. We can expect changing government and leaders stepping down, as well as tragedies from terrorist activities, natural disasters and human illness, for example the H1N1. A few years ago, I did predict a global illness, which is today H1N1 and that North America would be hit harder, which is what we see today, especially with the initial shortages of the vaccine. Socially, we will be faced with difficult competition and a lot of gossip and scandals. As long as we remember to be dynamic, adaptable, not afraid of doing extra work without gains, and keep our intentions honorable, we can pave the way to a good year.

In the year of the Tiger, certain stars promote the elements water and earth, where water gives rise to earth, earth gives rise to fire and fire changes metal. However, because the element earth is too strong this year, at the beginning of the year, the economy may appear better, but is actually bad. Because of the metal element this year, there will easily be bloodshed and disorder, like flooding and earthquakes, traffic injuries and war. Particularly in the northeastern direction, the Middle East, Afghanistan, Pakistan or even Xinjiang will have conflicts. In the north and northwestern directions, those areas will have a higher occurrence of influenza. The southern countries will be more prone to water and fire disasters and traffic accidents. Therefore, everyone needs to be more careful and take care in diet and lifestyle choices, as well as trying to be more harmonious with others. People need to be more understanding of each other, improve communication and be more accommodating, which are key to success this year.

This is my 20th year using what my master has taught me, to make predictions for year for Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Canada, and US. For all these years that I have been making predictions, they have been accurate for major event, and before these events happen, I have given forewarning in my predictions. For example, in Spring of 1992, I predicted the wave of immigration from Hong Kong to places such as Canada, United States and Australia, with many people returning to their home country by approximately 2007. In 2000, I predicted the slowing of overseas immigration from Hong Kong and Taiwan. I predicted that China will be a major source of immigration, which will decrease between 2007 and 2009, and by 2010, even the immigrants from China will slowly return to their home country. Also, in 1997, I predicted a financial crisis. Unfortunately, I predicted the spread of a major communicable disease, SARS, for 2003. I predicted that in 2001, there would be a major fire disaster on the Eastern coast of the United States and that prediction was realized with the 911 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center. Many people felt that as a result of 911, the economies of Canada and the US will decline, but I insisted that rather than declining, the economies would continue to do well and stocks will continue to rise. I predicted that in 2005, Hong Kong's Chief Executive Tung Chee-hua would resign amongst some drama even though he would be able to take Hong Kong through the SARS incident in 2003. Against the odds and despite what other fortune tellers predicted, I said that Chen Sui-bian, President of Taiwan, would be re-elected by using underhanded means, to continue his presidency but that once continues in office, that his popularity with the citizens would decline and eventually step down due to scandals. I predicted in 2008 that there will be a global recession, advising people not to be greedy or impulsive and to carefully invest and the result is that many people had suffered financial loss, with the Dow ones that year dropping from 13,000 to 7,000 points. The United States that year in 2008 to 2009 experienced the greatest economic decline in the last 30 years and as a result affecting global economy, with large companies downsizing and layoffs, which all were predictions that became reality. Even though the recession is global and will to some extent affect Hong Kong and China, but because of their geographical location, they are less affected than the Western hemisphere. In 2008, I also predicted that in the northwestern area, there will be a major earthquake and accordingly, the Sichuan earthquake resulted in many fatalities. In 2008-2009, I predicted that there will be more erratic changes in weather and that there will be another major communicable illness, and we saw that many provinces in Canada were hit with a heat wave. At the end of 2007, I predicted that crude oil prices will be as high as $100 USD a barrel, and that the following year, it will drop to as low as $60 USD. I predicted in the global recession that China will be the least affected country, where its GDP will increase while other countries decrease and though 2009 is not entirely over, the chances of China succeeding in this is high. However, China isn’t without its problems, as I predicted before, Tibet and Xinjiang will have political disputes and disorder with casualties, and this has come true. And what was thought as a ridiculous prediction at the time, has now proved to be correct. This has been a review of my major predictions in the last two decades.

We will now step into 2010, my predictions for the Year of the Tiger. The actual Year of the Tiger begins on February 4th, 2010 in the solar calendar, which is December 21st for the lunar calendar at 6:24 am. Even though it is not quite Chinese New Year, we have already stepped into the year of the Tiger, so therefore, those born on or after February 4th actually belong to the year of the Tiger. This is a year of extremes and hidden bad. In the beginning of the year, disruptions and conflicts easily occur. It is a changing and difficult to predict year. The economy will be an “M” shaped progression, where the rich will get richer, the poor will get poorer. Economic and financial policies will bubble. People’s values and ethics are becoming more twisted. Every industry will be very difficult and people will be working harder. Large companies and financial institutions, particularly in the United States will need to rely more heavily on government intervention and support. If this support is pulled back prematurely, consumer confidence will decline even more, leading to continued decline in the economy. Despite attempts from the United States to revive the economy this year, the time has not come for much improvement. Especially real estate, I do not see much improvement this year. The automobile industry will still see cutbacks, but on the other hand, industries like technology and mining may have recovery towards the end of the year. Once consumer confidence increases, improvements in economy may follow, though stocks will continue to be unstable. Of course, things will not be always good or always bad. Towards the end of the Fall, North America and Europe will start to slowly stabilize. However, interest rates will increase, which again will produce more disruptions in the industrialized nations. On the other hand, Asia, including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India and Korea, due to it’s location, not only will be stable, particularly China, will have growth in economy. Therefore, economy in Asia will be better than North America and Europe. Though there will no be major wars, there will be more terrorist activity this year. On the whole, this is a relatively dark year.

United States

In 2003, I predicted that with the alignment of stars in 2004, the US would have several years of good luck and we saw that from 2005 to 2007, economy times were good, with increasing productivity, low inflation and on both East and West coast, real estate values were increasing, in addition to the Dow Jones faired really well. At the end of the stream of luck, we step into autumn of 2007, where we started to have some economic downturn and rising inflation, which inevitably become the economic recession of today, with the next five years, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 being the beginning of the bad luck nightmare. The United States, being one of the strongest economic powers in the world, certainly will have a global effect with this recession and it is a fate that is difficult to escape. Accordingly, a Chinese saying that is appropriate is, things will not be good for a thousand days and flowers don’t bloom for a hundred days. The wood star and water star in 2008 to 2009 were against the southwest, so the United States was affected, resulting in the downfall of many industries, especially banking, automobile and manufacturing. In 2009, employment rate increased and real estate value decreased. In response, the government printed more currency and supported banks and automobile companies, as well as reducing interest rates. Such attempts to help delay economic decline and prevent bankruptcy of the country are good intentions, but is not without consequences, where it gives people false hope or the appearance that there is improvement, as long term, the government is unable keep putting money in. Hopefully, by the end of the Fall in 2010, things will be more stable and there will be more consumer confidence where people will start investing again or if unemployment declines and people can start buying real estate again. However, on the whole, the consequence of this recession is like being bitten by a snake for the United States. As I predict, starting from 2010, the importance of the United States as a major economic force will slowly decline. What I have predicted in the past has become reality. Living in North America, I do hope that the economy in the United States is not too poor, as it will directly affect Canada.

Using what my master has taught me with the I-ching, in 2010, the year of the Tiger, before the Fall, there will not be any significant improvement in the economy. Additionally, if there is some major scandal either globally or within the US, we may expect a second coming of the global recession in the Spring or Summer. Though it will not be as serious as in 2008, it will certainly shatter the hope and confidence that people have gained. Hopefully, the scandals will not be serious, particularly those related to banking, lending or credit cards etc. Hopefully, the US treasury department is able to maintain low interest rates, not pull out support to industries too early, print more currency and bonds to help reduce the impact of a recession second coming.

With Barrack Obama as the current US president, hopes were high with his election to office; however, he is in a position where even though he may have talent, he doesn’t have much to work with, much like a chef without proper ingredients. His popularity will continue to decline in 2010 and his policies will be unpopular with the citizens. Furthermore, there is also the possibility of a personal error that will lead to further decline in popularity. Also, in 2010, President Obama may have illness, accident or suffer physical injury.

Real estate, finance and banking, stocks and currency are unstable in 2010. Not until July or August will there be some stability. In beginning of the year of the Tiger, the government will continue to print more money, keep interest rates low and subsidize to encourage consumerism in real estate and automobiles in order to prevent further economic decline and dropping of real estate values. However, I do not foresee any real significant improvement in 2010 using these strategies. The unemployment rate will continue to be 8.5%, with a chance of being as high as 10%. As a result, the recovery of the economy will be slower. Upturn should be begin around the Fall, led by industries such as high tech, computers, pharmaceuticals, mining, and funding. Retail should start to recover by late Fall or early Winter. Automobile, banking, insurance, distribution, and food and hospitality should see improvement towards the end of Winter. Though the economy will improve, inflation and interest rates will increase. The catch 22 is that if interest rates do no increase, then inflation will increase, but increased interest rates will threaten the newly recovering economy. Though unemployment rate may decrease to about 8%, there will be no practical improvements in standard of living. Furthermore, the financial market will tend to have much movement, with the Dow Jones having large fluctuations, no higher than 12,800 points and drop as low as 10,000 points or lower. The USD will have a slight increase in the beginning of the year then decrease, with 1 Euro to about $1.45 - $1.55 USD. I predicted before that the value of gold in 2009 will have a chance of exceeding $900USD an ounce and right now, gold has exceeded $1000 USD an ounce and in 2010, gold will have a further increase of 5% to about $1280 an ounce. I predicted for 2009 that crude oil prices will drop to below $60 USD a barrel then increase to about $80 USD and all of this has come true. In 2010, crude oil will range from $70 USD a barrel to a high of $90 USD.

In 2010, the United States not only has to use politics and good management strategies to stimulate the economy and hopefully, the economy does not continue to decline. Actually, another problem is that the US has to face more terrorism from places such as Afghanistan, Pakistan or Middle East which will be more heated. Osama Bin Ladden will continue to elude the United States. As a result, military spending will increase to deal with terrorism, adding burden to the economy. General safety will also continue to take a downturn, particularly with white collar crime, theft, gun violence including school shootings being more serious concerns. There will be a scandal in the financial scene, leading to loss of confidence of investors. Weather will also be unstable, particularly the southeast will have more disasters, for example extreme weather, heavy winds and flooding, as well as large scale traffic accidents and explosions. There will also be an important political or corporate figure who will step down or die. This is a year where many things will be happening in the United States, with instability of stocks, and where consumer confidence will not easily be restored.

Canada

In 2010, to some extent, Canada will be directly affected by the economy in the United States. Because of the position of the stars over the eastern provinces, they will do better than the US. In 2007-2008, I predicted that though the Canadian economy will be inevitably weakened, it will still be better than the US. Also, Canada luckily has resources such as crude oil, mining and precious metals etc., which are increasing in value, will be very useful. I do not expect Canada’s economy to drastically decline in 2010 and compared to the United States, we will continue to fair better. However, because over many years, Canada is strongly tied to the US economy, we will not see any visible growth. Additionally, I have predicted in the past five years, that there will be some 3-4 federal elections, which do not have positive contributions to the economy. I have also mentioned that they would be minority governments led by the Conservative party. Being a minority government, it is a crippled government that is limited and is without clear goals and good economic policies. Therefore, in 2008, 2009, and 2010, Canada will not see much economic growth, or even there will be a slight decline. I predicted before in 2008 that unemployment rate can be expected to be around 7% in 2009. Though there may be only slight growth of 1-2%, it will still be better compared to the US. Though in 2010 the unemployment rate can be expected to be about 7%, towards the end of the Fall season, we may expect it to decline to about 6.7 or 6.8%. Also, because the global values of crude oil, mining, precious metals and natural gas will increase, so the Canadian economy will not be too bad. The Canadian dollar will continue to be strong, approximately $1 CDN to 7.2 to 7.5 HKD, or $1 CDN to 0.94 – 0.97 USD. Interest rates will continue to be low in 2010, with a slight increase in the Fall, which will drop again, and on average, the increase will not likely be greater than 0.5%. Exports will not do extremely well, but crude oil, telecommunications, precious metals and mining products will do well; however, wood products, automobile, and machinery will not have much improvement.

The economy in the Spring of 2010 will continue to be slow, though in the Summer, there will be slight improvement in retail, construction, and distribution. Canada will have stronger ties with Asia, particularly China, which will strengthen our exports and economy as a whole. In the past, Canada has relied too heavily on the United States, and in 2010, there will be improved international relations with China, India and Japan, which is advantageous to Canada. Real estate will continue to be stable, particularly in British Columbia and Ontario, where the beginning of the year will have a good market with increasing values. However, it will tend to fluctuate. If has extra money or really needs to buy a home to live in, then it doesn’t matter, but it is not advised to buy/sell real estate for investment and making money, especially in B.C. As mentioned before, for 2009, real estate will increase in value in the Summer. However, in 2010, after May or June and into the Fall, there will be a large correction, especially in Vancouver West and Richmond, areas with many Chinese residents. On the other hand, Saskatchewan and Alberta, particularly Calgary and Edmonton will see a slight increase in real estate values. In the East, Montreal and Ottawa, real estate will be fairly stable, but Toronto will fluctuation more, where there is initial increase in values followed by slight decrease. In terms of stocks, there is slight increase, but the TSX can be expected to be no higher than 12,000 points. Those with extra money may consider stocks in mining, retail, or banking, but with caution in small amounts, and avoid borrowing money to invest; remember, returns don’t come without effort.

In terms of politics, I previously predicted in 2005 that Canada will have a change in leadership in the federal government and in 2006, the Liberals stepped down due to scandal and the Conservatives were elected and as predicted, a minority government. As mentioned earlier, between 2006 and 2010, there were some three elections, all resulting in the Conservative minority government that isn’t much use, lacking goals and creating more disturbances in the economy than good. The way out is to improve trade relations with Asia, particularly with China, and rely less on the United States and strengthen telecommunications, primary resources, and high tech exports, improve consumer spending power, reducing taxes and unemployment rate can lead to a stable and booming economy. Though I have made these suggestions two years ago, which have not been done. However, I believe in 2010, the Harper government will create stronger ties with Asia in terms of trading, economy and politics, which will encourage export to Asia, especially with wood, crude oil, telecommunications and high tech. In 2010, there is a chance for yet another federal election, where the Conservatives will have a high chance of being elected as a strong, majority government, which will help Canada to some extent in terms of politics and economy, but for the time being in 2010, little will be done. In 2010, not only will there be no chance of the GST being removed, there will also be another form of tax that will be levied, which I have predicted before in 2008. Evidently, the HST was announced in 2009 and in 2010, the HST will definitely be in place, which will have negative effects, decreasing the standard of living of the citizens.

Natural disasters and destructive human activities are plenty this year, especially traffic accidents and harsh weather with heavy wind and snow. Weather will continue to be fluctuating with extremes of temperatures. I predicted before in 2008 that forest fires will be a serious in 2009, which we saw. Again, in 2010, we must anticipate more forest fires and we all must be careful with fire for home safety, particularly around Halloween, as the year 2010 easily attracts fire. Other areas of caution include physical injury from knives and general safety, as gang shootings will continue to be a serious problem. Youth violence and home invasion from revenge will increase. Though Canada’s economy will not improve much, at very least is will be stable and may show some good signs and compared to the United States, we will be doing better.

Central and South America

The economy in 2010 in Central and South America, especially Brazil, Argentina and Mexico, will change for the better. Brazil is expected to have about 8-10% growth. Inflation will increase slightly. Amongst the global recession, relatively, it is country that will be very apparent in doing well. However, South America will have earthquakes and floods, as well as political disturbances. Peru and Chile will have particularly more natural disasters.

Europe

In 2010, the year of the Tiger, Europe’s economy is actually not bad, where there are changes that lead to improvement, particularly for Germany, England, and France will perform better. The decline in banking and insurance in the past year is no longer. Internal consumerism and spending is stable. Real estate, particularly England, will have very apparent increase in value, whereas Netherlands, Belgium and Germany will have less of an increase. Eastern Europe, countries like Iceland and Norway, will still be weak in economy and real estate. On the other hand, Southern European countries like Italy, Greece, Turkey, and other countries will have declines, which will be initial, then subsequently they will become stronger later one. The Euro will be weaker this year, but compared to the USD is about 1 Euro to 1.45 – 1.55 USD, with rather large changes. The Great Britain Pound will still be a strong currency, of 1 GBP to 1.58 – 1.69 USD. On average, the unemployment rate in Europe is still high. Some countries will be in double digit. The British Stock Exchange and Frankfurt Stock Exchange will have the largest fluctuations, but on average may have a 7-10% increase.

 

Southeast Asia  

In 2010, most the countries in Southeast Asia with the exception of Pakistan and South Korea, will have growth in economy. India, Singapore, North Korea. Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia will also have some improvement. However, Thailand will again have internal conflicts that will affect the economy and tourism. Indonesia may have earthquake and tsunami, affecting the lives of the people. As said, most of the other countries of Asia will experience a more rapid growth and exports will increase. The Yen will be a particularly strong currency, with 1 USD to about 86-92 Yen. Those who wish to invest may consider industrial, technology, or financial stocks, which will be expected to have 10 – 15% increase for Japan, India and Singapore, particularly Japan and India stocks will do better.

China

For the year of the Tiger, China will continue to have a tendency to develop two extremes where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Internal retail and exports will be weaker, posing a threat to the economy. Luckily, manufacturing companies can easily adjust and be adaptable in that rather than making goods for exports, they can be made for internal retail. This will help the economy and the lives of the people through reducing the chance of an increasing unemployment rate. In 2010, economic and society morals and values continue to disintegrate as corruption becomes more and more of a serious issue. The corruption of businesses, officials and local governments will lead to the continued suffering of the people. The social atmosphere is filled with disorder, selfishness and competition, where people are superficial, greedy, and make short term goals to hopefully earn big money overnight; as a result, there will be a lot of scams and fraud. If the central Chinese government does not control this corruption, it is the citizens who suffer and if economic policies are not in place to suppress corruption among businesses and government officials, the effects on the economy will be like a ticking time bomb. Other than controlling corruption and economic policies, the government should also put funds into things such as constructing bridges, utilities, health care, education, development of high tech to directly benefit the people and narrow the gap between the rich and the poor.

The global recession actually gave China a good opportunity, where it allowed China to match the western countries in terms of economy in 2009 – 2010, that China does not only rely on exports and spending from outside. China can use this opportunity to manufacture high tech and high end or higher quality products will be better for China’s economy long term. There should not be sole focus on stock market and real estate trading and investment as amongst a seemingly booming time, it is unstable. In the year of the Tiger, regardless of whether it is politics, economy, finance, real estate, manufacturing or retail, it will be a year of good embedded with the bad, or vice versa. If the central Chinese government can be long-sighted towards politics, economics and foreign relations, be more democratic and make more visible policies and participate in good diplomatic relations like the UN, then not only will there not be decline, but the GDP may even grow by about 8%. Particularly in the last half of the year, industries such as tourism, shipping, insurance, imports/exports, service, banking, and mining would head the economy. In the Summer and Fall, foreign investment will continue to enter China, but one should be careful of corruption, red tape and excessive taxation from local governments, which will negatively affect the confidence of foreign investors, impacting the economy long term.

The year of the Tiger will see growths in currency and banking. In 2010, China continues to be the country with the most foreign currency. Shanghai Stock Exchange shares can be expected to have 7 – 10% increase. The Ren Men Bi compared to the USD will have 3 – 5% increase. However, be it stocks or currencies, fluctuations are large and is not a place where the common person or small business person can win money, because if one is overtaken by greed, big losses will ensue. China’s real estate will initially increase in value, then decline and different provinces will have different situations. China’s financial centers, Beijing and Shanghai will continue to be strong and would be the place of choice to invest real estate; however, choose real estate from large developers only, to reduce the risk of poorly built property. Guangzhou and Shenzhen will have a large correction in its real estate values which will decrease, so avoid investing. The western and south western areas like Sichuan, Xian, Xinjiang, and Chongqing will have slight declines in real estate values. Cities in the southeast, like Tianjin, Niuling and Tsingtao will have fairly stable real estate prices, no large increases or decreases. As said, China’s social and economic state is where the gap between the rich and the poor is getting wider and distribution of wealth is skewed. People are becoming more superficial and chasing worldly goods. Additionally, private and government owned factories closing down, leaving high unemployment and desperate people to take risks.

Amongst a busy, growing economy, is the backdrop of increasingly serious theft, fraud, gambling, and drugs. Those who are looking to work or travel in China needs to be careful of scams causing huge losses of money. The year 2010 will see a lot of natural disasters and human suffering. There will be an earthquake in the northwestern provinces leading to the loss of many lives. Weather will be extreme. There will also be a lot of human induced disasters like explosions and fire. Some places will have water dangers like flooding, while others may have extreme cold weather. There is also a high risk of flu or communicable respiratory infection and food poisoning. Therefore, this is still an unstable year for China with all the disasters and human suffering, but it is still relatively ok compared to the western countries.

Taiwan

The year of the Tiger is a changing, restless year, whether it is politics, economics or well-being of the citizens. In a previous interview with the Vancouver edition Ming Pao Daily Newspaper published on March 18th, 2004, I was able to accurately predict that Chen Shui-bian would be victorious in the election, contrary to the surveys and other predictions made by other fortune tellers who supported a Kuomintang victory. Chen Shui-bian would be re-elected, but would be imprisoned, as under the Chen Shui-bian and the Progressive Democratic Party leadership, their policies created a lot of economic and social problems. I also predicted for 2008 that the Kuomingtang would be elected in government due to Chen Shui-bian’s corruption. Though Ma Ying-jeou was popular and there was a lot of optimism, but he is of limited help to improving economy and social issues, with his policies lacking in long term goals. With the global recession, Taiwan suffers even more economic decline and I anticipate that in the year of the Tiger, the economy will not recover and continues to be unstable. Exports and internal consumerism will not recover. This is due to Taiwan being in a very poor geographic position affected by unlucky stars in the year of the Tiger, leading to suffering and poor livelihood of the people. Safety is worse, with more theft, smuggling, kidnapping, sexual assault and other violent crimes. The financial world is also unstable; the Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index will initially increase, then decrease and will have great fluctuations, but may be around 7000 points. Inflation is also surfacing as a problem. The New Taiwan Dollar compared to the USD will initially increase in value, but will then decrease. Those who invest in stocks will be at risk for big losses. For long term investment, the real estate values in Taiwan will continue to increase, so it may not be a bad idea. The KMT opening up relations to Communist China will lead to greater prosperity, improving tourism, shipping, imports/exports, retail and high tech businesses. Particularly in the last half of the year, the positive effect will help the weak economy. Increasing ties between China and Taiwan will lead to more tourism, business opportunities, studying, marriage and relocation to China, which is mutually beneficial to both Taiwan and China socially and economically. In the year of the Tiger, other than political unrest, the Progressive Democratic Party will make a small scene to disrupt the Kuomingtang. I previously predicted in 2008 that Taiwan will have flooding and typhoon in 2009, resulting in loss of lives and economic loss. Typhoon 918 hit Tainan, making these predictions true. In 2010, Taiwan will again be hit by flooding and heavy rains and small earthquake, but their destructive power will be less than what was experienced in the previous year.

Hong Kong

In the year of the Tiger, Hong Kong is best described as divided and what is meant by divided is that the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer and this situation will get worse. As a result, the economy and societal values and attitudes are becoming more and more twisted, where high values are placed on packaging oneself and are immersed into investing in stocks in hopes to make a lot of quick money overnight. A lot of traditional industries will be undermined in importance and largely taken over by retail, losing manufacturing and home production type industries. The type of industries left include food, hospitality and tourism, finance and banking, retail, shipping and trading. The Hong Kong government needs to have comprehensive and conservative economic policies that maintain a visible financial centre in order to maintain Hong Kong’s reputation as a major financial centre in Asia, and as China’s off-shore financial centre. Hong Kong will also have to improve communications services, a stable financial platform, and a more democratic political atmosphere, in order to reduce the threat of Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen or Singapore overtaking Hong Kong as Asia’s major financial centre. However, as I have said in 2004, Hong Kong will be the major financial centre of Asia, as well as China’s major offshore financial centre and it is not likely that Shanghai and other cities in China are able to take the place of Hong Kong.

In 2010, Hong Kong will continue to have the open policy of travel with Mainland China, which will bring more people from China to Hong Kong. As a result, there will be increased spending on retail, tourism, food and hospitality, fine jewelry, and buying stocks and real estate, which will create an economic boom for Hong Kong. In the last half of the year, Hong Kong’s export industry will begin to stabilize, where higher priced products and high tech products will become more popular. In turn, after the Fall, shipping will also increase. This is a year that will bring metal and water elemental types of business. Competition will be fiercer for every industry. Inflation will slowly rise, so though there are gains for the people, practically speaking, there is less. Though there is less talk about cutbacks and layoffs, there will actually be little effect on the unemployment rate, which is expected to be around 4.8 – 5.5%, so the people will have to look out for themselves. Hopefully, the government will try to support small and medium sized businesses and attract high tech, investment and finance expertise from abroad. Increased spending on retail, high tech, tourism, international finance and such industries will result in building of international class harbor, bridge, performing arts centre, financial convention center and science and technology centre in the years to come. Hopefully, Hong Kong will become a major worldwide financial centre in the next 5 – 7 years.

There has been political unrest in Hong Kong, as I have said for 2003 where 50,000 people gathered for a demonstration in support of the Democratic Party, which I predicted correctly that they will not be a strong political power. However, gaining more popularity is DAB (Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong) who support closer ties to China and in 2007 – 2008, they became the biggest political party in Hong Kong, which I have previously predicted and is now true. The year of the Tiger is a difficult year for politicians, so Donald Tsang with the soft legged crab government that for the past two years largely relied on China, will lose popularity. Additionally, the Democratic Party will attempt to create more problems, which further decreases Donald Tsang’s popularity, and this is of no help to Hong Kong’s political atmosphere. Hopefully, the citizens can diffuse their discontent with the government and be more peaceful, as the Hong Kong people should try to understand that achieving democracy takes time and is not something one can have overnight. Pushing too hard for democracy may even make matters worse before things get better. Additionally, the model of democracy in Western countries may not necessarily work for Hong Kong and in fact, may be even worse for Hong Kong socially, economically, and luck for its geographic.

Economic, finance and real estate in Hong Kong this year can be described as quick and high risk. At the beginning of the year, high prices luxury homes will soar in value, which is meant for Mainland Chinese to invest in and sell, which in turn also increases activity with stocks. If the regular folk follow suit and starts investing in these luxury homes and stock market, after the Summer, once China puts tighter regulations, real estate and stocks will have a correction, then a drop in value is inevitable, which can lead to huge losses. Those who are looking to buy a home to live in should do so after the Summer and choose low to mid-value real estate. In general, housing values will go up in the year of the Tiger where low to mid-value real estate is expected to increase by 5 – 8%, but high priced luxury homes will on the other hand, decrease. Particularly solid areas are the eastern and western districts, for example west Kowloon or eastern, western or southwestern Hong Kong Island, which also tend to have better feng shui.

I previously predicted that in 2007 – 2008, the Ren Men Bi will increase to about 1USD to 8 RMB and in the year of the Tiger, the RMB will continue to increase to about 1USD to 8.8 RMB. As a result, it will threaten the Hong Kong dollar, making it weaker. In terms of the financial market, stocks and bonds, there will be fluctuations. The Heng Seng Index will be around 18,000 – 23,000 points. Though I said in 2008 that there will be many new stocks in the market in 2009, but for 2010, new stocks will dive in and then dive down, so caution must be taken when investing as greed can lead to poverty. Stocks and bonds can be a long term investment; however, only if one has sufficient funds should they invest. One must avoid borrowing money to buy stocks or else become the stock market’s dim sum, as this year’s stock market fluctuations are difficult to grasp.

The year of the Tiger is a year where there are particularly more problems for the people and society. There will be large scale traffic accidents, wind and water natural disasters, mid year may have an explosion, or even demonstrations. Try to avoid staying too long in crowds, as risks of flu and respiratory infections are greater. Home safety and public personal hygiene is a strong concern this year, as there will be a large scale flu/respiratory infection that may occur. Safety is poor, with homicides and theft tend to be more serious this year. There is a decline of human morals, leading to more sexual assault, rape, adultery and fraud. Tempers tend to be more volatile in the year of the Tiger, so watch for spoken words leading to loss of money, physical injury, fights, and arguments. As there are more love related and sex crimes in the year of the Tiger, be careful of conduct with the opposite sex, resulting in loss of money and injury. I previously predicted in 2007 that I predicted that a very famous female actress would pass away in 2008 and that prediction was correct with the passing Lydia Shum Din-Ha. For 2008, I also predicted a lot of love scandals and we saw at least ten celebrities in the headlines, for example Edison Chen’s sex photo scandal and other triangular or inappropriate relationships, and my prediction was again correct. I also predicted that the modeling industry would have some commotion, where we saw the sexual explicitness of young or underage models twisted the entertainment and modeling industry. The year of the Tiger will continue to see the love and sex scandal trends. The entertainment industry this year will stabilize a bit, but will not recover, the chances almost nil, to the height it once was. There may even be an agency that will make changes or even close down. The quality and talent of people in the entertainment industry continues to decline, where good reviews and sales are not apparent and that is the direction the industry is headed towards. Seasoned old timers and young models continue to be the ones making appearances to sell the productions. This year, we will see a famous male celebrity pass away, as well as a famous societal figure suffer from major illness and pass away.